[Data and projections from SCAG Preliminary Draft '97 Regional Transportation Plan.]

Transportation Equity: Projected Benefit Distribution of $66 billion Regional Transportation Improvement Plan 1997-2020*
Household income	% of Population	Millions of people	% of Benefits	$/person
Less than $12,000	15%	2.3	2%	$650
$12,000 - 24,999	18%	10.8	50%	$1,410
$25,000 - 49,999	32%	10.8	50%	$2,760
$50,000 - 69,999	19%	10.8	50%	$5,060
Over $70,000	16%	2.5	48%	$12,750

*[Data from SCAG Preliminary Draft '97 Regional Transportation Plan and SCAG staff]

The transportation figures compare current 1994 data with baseline projections to the year 2020 (with implementation of the current Regional Transportation Improvement Plan (RTIP)). The challenge is the large increase in congestion that will be caused by the projected 44% increase in population (and increase in trip lengths from urban sprawl) in the period 1994 to 2020. The 60% increase in vehicle miles traveled will cause region wide congestion delays to increase by 332% and the average highway speed drop to 23 miles per hour by 2020. Average peak period speeds are projected by the Metropolitan Transportation Agency (MTA) to drop to 11 mph or less in much of Los Angeles County.
The result will be that the number of hours spent in extreme congestion (average speed of 12 mph) will increase by nearly 500%. At this speed a 20 mile trip takes an average of 100 minutes. The percentage of commute times with average one way travel time over 1.5 hours will grow from essentially none now to 9% of all work trips. In much of Orange County, 25% of work trips will be over 100 minutes.
This congestion is projected to decrease the number of people who drive alone and increase the number who work at home or telecommute. However, in spite of the billions being spent on the subway and commuter rail, the percentage who travel by trains and buses will actually drop from 6% to 5% (although the absolute number will be greater than presently).
SCAG calculates that the net present value of the baseline plan is negative. Each $1 invested yields only 52 cents in benefits. Much of this is probably due to the Red Line subway, which is subsidized by taxpayers at $28 per passenger mile (in contrast to MTA buses which are subsidized at 69 cents per passenger mile -- a difference of 4000%). SCAG staff has designed a plan which produces a benefit of $2.39 per $1 invested, however, it is not clear this proposal will be implemented by the MTA and other County Transportation Commissions.
SCAG calculates that all proposed plans "disproportionately benefit persons in the highest income group." The 2.3 million people living in households with less than $12,000 annual income receive an average benefit of $650, while each person in a household with over $70,000 income receives $12,750 per person, 2000% more.