Friday, May 10, 1996, California State University, Los Angeles

CONTENTS

Introduction

Population, Technology and Consumption: Achieving Sustainability Globally and Locally --Nafis Sadik

Stories of Personal Change

The Future of Southern California--Ali Modarres

Making the Connections for Sustainability --Ted Crovello, Cal State L.A.

Sustainability Issues Facing Southern California

A Desired Future for Southern California

Recommendations for Action

Introduction

Dean Theodore Crovello welcomed the group to the University.

Kathleen Gildred, Director of SCCED, outlined the history and purpose of SCCED. It began in 1993, based on the call of the 1992 UN Earth Summit, that the best way to achieve a sustainable future is for all the stakeholders to work together toward implementing change. The global Agenda 21 adopted by the Earth Summit asked local governments to produce a local Agenda 21 by 1996. SCCED brings together people from the different sectors to look at sustainable strategies for the LA area.

SCCED has Task Forces working on waste, water and transportation issues. Recommendations from this conference will be referred to a new Education Task Force for development. SCCED supports a balance between conservation and consumption, recognizing that the environment, economy and equity all have to be worked on together.

In response to the Earth Summit, President Clinton created in 1993 the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) to work on a national strategy for sustainability for the US. One of the goals of the PCSD's recently issued report is education for sustainability. The report can be obtained from the PCSD, 730 Jackson Place NW, Washington, DC 20503, 202-408-5296, fax 202-408-6839. Internet address: http://www.whitehouse.gov/pcsd

Population, Technology and Consumption:
Achieving Sustainability Globally and Locally

Nafis Sadik
Executive Director of United Nations Fund for Population Activities
and UN Under Secretary General

Involvement of the People

One of the most important questions of our time is teaching people to act together to stop environmental degradation. I believe that involvement of the people is one of the most important accomplishments of the series of intergovernmental conferences starting with the Earth Summit in 1992.

People of all cultural backgrounds throughout the world are concerned with preservation of our natural habitat and resources, but people often feel they are helpless in the face of environmental deterioration. Despite such pessimism, much is being done by individuals, groups and governments to stop the damage from over-exploitation of our resources.

Today everyone recognizes that environmental degradation is related to issues of population, poverty, income disparities, wasteful consumption and gender inequality - issues that have been addressed by the series of UN summits in Rio, Cairo, Copenhagen, and now Istanbul this June.

Global Population Growth

Worldwide, the annual population growth has slowed to 1.5%, but it is still more than 3% in some parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Over the next decade, only 5% of the total population growth will occur in the developed world, but these countries will contribute heavily to resource consumption.

In the past 20 years, the world's population has increased by 49% from 3.9 to 5.8 billion. According to UN projections, the global population will be between 7.1 - 7.8 billion in 2015 and between 7.9 and 11.9 billion in 2050. Whether the actual totals are closer to the high or low projections will depend on how effective we are in meeting the objectives agreed on at the UN Cairo Population Conference, which included the expansion of education opportunities, especially for girls, the empowerment of women, and the provision of health services, including reproductive health care and family planning.

Overconsumption

The Food Security Summit in November 1996 will look at food needs. Today about 800 million people in the world are hungry, but the anticipated increase of per capita income usually increases meat consumption which puts a much higher strain on resources, so that linear projections based on grain production are not accurate.

At the heart of the population-environment relationship is the over-consumption in the developed world which has only 25% of the population, but consumes 75% of the energy, 85% of all wood, 79% of all commercial fuels and 72% of all steel. A person in the developed world consumes, directly or indirectly, enough grain to feed 4 Indians, and uses 40 times more resources than an average resident of Tanzania. In addition, media from the developed world dramatically present images of overconsumption to the entire world.

Just as there is a vicious circle linking poverty, rapid population growth and unsustainable environmental practices, there is a virtuous circle in which meeting human needs results in a slower population growth and a healthier environment.

It is generally agreed that meeting human needs is the central focus of development, but present policies are reinforcing social inequity and poverty, with very little investment going into education and social needs.

Gender Equity

Since the Cairo Po;ulation Conference and Beijing Women's Conferences there has been more focus on gender equity, recognizing women have a crucial impact on economic and resource development. We know development initiatives fail if do not recognize the role of women. Often women are left out of training in new technology, even though they are the primary users. Women need access to land, credit, resources, education, information, technology and markets. The Beijing Platform for Action called for all policies and programs to be uated in terms of their impact on the environment and on women's equal access to natural resources.

UNFPA is coordinating follow-up to the Cairo Conference with 23 UN organizations. For example, UNESCO is the lead organization for education programs, with other UN organizations, working on human rights, environment, drug enforcement, etc.

What You Can Do

International meetings adopt basic intergovernmental positions and make recommendations that are adopted by consensus. While governments are not legally required to honor these commitments, they are morally obligated to do so and most do some follow-up, but each country must tailor the program to the needs of that country. However, it is the role of interested parties, such as you, to make sure that governments live up to the pledges they have made. The best way to do this is to work with the non-governmental organizations (NGOs) related to your areas of concern.

You in the U.S. have organized yourself to impact policies of local and national governments. You know how to use community groups to influence change, and be watchdogs. This has not happened in many developing countries. Development is teaching people how to do it themselves. You could show people how they can make change happen.

Look around at your own society, what application does the Cairo Program of Action have on conditions here? What can be done about maternal and infant mortality rates in your inner cities? What needs to be done to ensure women's equity and equality? What can be done about adolescent pregnancy (knowing the U.S. leads the developed world in teen age pregnancy)? How can poverty in the U.S. be eliminated?

UN Fund for Population Activities

The UNFPA works primarily with developing countries in implementing strategies designed to improve women's status and hence their ability to more effectively manage their lives, families and living environment. We provide materials for education programs and teacher training. All surveys show that women want fewer children than they have, but either they do not have access to services, or cannot exercise their own decisions, because they are coerced by family or society.

The Cairo report estimated health needs at $17 billion annually by the year 2000, with a third, $5.3 billion to come from international donors, which is double what is now happening. However, most donor countries are increasing contributions, except for the U.S. Congress has cut funding for international population activities. The U.S. provided $35 million last year, but it has been cut to $27 million this year, to be paid out at 1/15th of that amount per month, a rather unusual arrangement in which the 1997 amount will have to be paid concurrently with 1996.

Support for the UN

However, overall, the U.S. owes the UN $1.5 billion, $1 billion for peacekeeping, and $0.5 billion arrears for the rest of its UN general assessment. The U.S. had agreed to pay 31% of the costs for peacekeeping (because of its veto power), but now Congress is saying will only pay 25%. This is causing a crisis throughout the UN system and the effect is to cut off many programs in developing countries.

The UN has brought many issues to the public consciousness, such as the human rights of all people, to help every individual attain their full potential. Only by working together around the world can we implement these blueprints for our common future. You can play an important role in this.

You can mobilize public opinion and support for the UN in general and for specific issues such as environment and population. You can develop local action plans to have the US government implement the agreements of the international conferences, then reach out to the world at large.

Discussion:

Q: How can we have human rights until we control population?

A: Currently the U.S. seems primarily concerned with growth of the economy, looking for a trickle down effect, but we know that does not work, you have to focus programs on those in need. The role of government is to provide a safety net to first ensure that everyone has their basic needs met.

Q: Males dominate the Roman Catholic and Muslim religious hierarchies which want to perpetuate large families.

A: We need to mobilize people within countries, to speak out about what we do not agree with. All religion is meant as a framework for the welfare of every individual in that society, but religion sometimes seems to support the rights of a certain elite group, such as males. However, direct confrontation does not work in many societies, so strategy is very important. We need to look pragmatically at how to make changes. If you look at the biggest needs, you could accomplish much just by listening to women.

Stories of Personal Change

Peter Kreitler, Earth Service Inc., suggested our work on sustainability is like the ancient story of Sisyphus who pushed a huge rock up a mountain only to have it roll right back down again. The attached cartoon shows Sisyphus (representing ourselves) pushing the Earth with all its problems up the mountain of the population increase. It is such a struggle, and it is likely it may roll back downhill any moment. It seems at this time we are losing a lot of the pieces of the puzzle that make up the Earth, as many species of animals and tribes of indigenous peoples are lost forever.

Dan Bornholdt, President, Green Suites International: Our company provides profitable environmental services to hotels. We show them how to increase profits through total quality management, to lower energy and water costs, increase waste efficiency and eliminate toxic cleaning products. Now the American Hotel/Motel Association is encouraging their members to give guests the option of not having their sheets and towels changed every day. We show them how to use non-toxic carpets, paints, cleaning products, change to low-flow toilets, etc. You can help by making reservations by calling 800-3GREEN3, which lists 300 hotels that have implemented environmental initiatives.

Brenda Funches, founder of L.A. Harvest: I managed the Common Ground program for the UC Extension Service to help create community vegetable gardens, but people wanted to do more than plant a garden. So I founded LA Harvest to help communities create their own solutions to their own issues. We empower communities to do whatever they need to do with their natural resources to create a sustainable community. They take vacant lots and transform them into gardens, basketball courts, or places for seniors to hang out and feel safe.

Peter Kreitler: While visiting Costa Rica, I walked into the forest to sit and listen. I heard a troop of monkeys surround me and the young started throwing branches at me. I realized I had complicity in destroying their habitat, they were angry at me because I had been part of the problem, not part of the solution. Then I saw a big blue butterfly, a symbol of new beginnings, and I decided I would come back and transform my heart. I had been a parish priest for 17 years when the Big Green initiative lost. My daughter Laura asked, "So what are you going to do about it?" The next day I went to talk with my bishop about becoming a minister at large for the environment, and soon I founded Earth Service Inc. I had a transformation of my heart because I know that the future depends on every one of us doing our unique role in creating the future. We must create a balance of the following three factors:

Social Responsibility - to meet the needs of the underserved

Sustainability - for the future of environment and society

Profit - companies need to stay in business to employ and serve people

The Future of Southern California
Ali Modarres, California State University, Los Angeles L.A.

In the 50 years since World War II, we have doubled the global population from less than 3 billion to nearly 6 billion. We are expecting another doubling to 12 billion in the next 40 years, which some ecologists predict will exceed the carrying capacity of the planet.

The Southern California Council of Governments (SCAG) estimates that the population of our 6-county area has grown by nearly 39% in the 15 years from 1980-95, to a current total of nearly 16 milllion, and will grow by another 47% to 23 million by the year 2020.

Although many industrialized countries have an essentially stable population, the US has a crude natural increase rate of 0.8% per year, which is mainly caused by higher rates of natural increase among the immigrant population. This produces a doubling time of 98 years for the U.S., while Denmark's is 500 years, and that of the Czech Republic is over 2000 years.

In L.A. County, for 1990 - 1999, we project an overall increase of 0.92% per year, but it varies for different ethnic groups as shown in the table below.

                     1990 
Census      1994          1999         Projected         Annual     
                                    Estimation    Projection     Growth Rate     Growth rate   
                                                                   (90-99)                     
Total Population        8,863,164     9,199,583     9,595,484             8.26%         0.92%  
White                   5,044,718     4,983,804     4,890,641            -3.05%        -0.34%  
African-American          990,406     1,001,836     1,014,917             2.47%         0.27%  
Latino                  3,306,116     3,769,673     4,284,796            29.60%         3.29%  
Native American            43,689        44,051        41,575            -4.84%        -0.54%  
Asian and Pacific         955,329     1,126,980     1,342,568            40.53%         4.50%  
Islander                                                                                       

There are four stages to population growth:

Stage 1: Birth rate and death rate are both high, so there is little growth.

Stage 2: Death rate drops (primarily due to the introduction of medical technology), resulting in a population explosion with a birthrate of over 30 per 1000.

Stage 3: Then the birthrate drops, to 12-20 per 1000, because people see children as a cost, rather than as an economic gain for the family, and population growth slows.

Stage 4: Stable population stage (birth rate equals death rate).

The various ethnic groups in L.A. are in different stages as shown in the table above. The highest birthrate is among the first generation immigrants. Gradual social and economic integration helps second and third generation immigrants to adjust their natural increase rate to the rest of the society.

Immigration is a major contributor to population growth in the Los Angeles County, where one-third of the residents are estimated to be foreign born (based on Census Bureau data). The emerging demography with its cultural and social class undertones has fueled some of the recent inter-group conflicts, which are partially based on social/economic competition. As population grows, these competitions, and hence conflicts, will grow (especially if no intervention is used).

Population growth and consumption patterns should be considered simultaneously. For example, while Western countries have slower population growth rates, the average energy consumption rates per person are much higher in these countries, as compared to some of the developing, Stage 2 countries. For example, the recent Goode's Atlas (18th edition) illustrates that while countries like U.S. have a per capita calorie supply of over 120% of actual requirements, others like India, Kenya, Algeria and Bangladesh have serious malnutrition problems (under 90% of required calories). Locally, Los Angeles County residents illustrate a perfect example of unequal consumption, where each individual consumes resources comparable to 10 people in the country of India.

Within Los Angeles County, equity issues are also a major challenge, since 15% of the household in the County are below the poverty level and many more have low incomes. One of every four census tracts in L.A. County is a high poverty area. This concentration of poverty is increasing as our major population growth is occurring in already high density areas.

Discussion:

Q: What is the relationship between population growth and economic growth, do we need economic growth for stability?

A: Some economists see population and the economy as separate issues. Others see high unemployment as helping to keep wages low. It is clear that the population growth in the U.S., particularly from immigration, is based on the attraction of our economic prosperity. I believe it is hard in a Stage 4 world to have a capitalistic, profit-based society maintaining reasonable equity levels, especially for minority groups. For example, I am told that Dr. Oliver, of the UCLA Sociology Department, has shown that every generation of African Americans had to start with zero assets, because there has been very little transfer of wealth from one generation to another.

Q: How can we improve this situation?

A: Support local-level grass-roots socio-political systems, based on community consensus decisions (not voting in which someone wins and someone loses).

Making the Connections for Sustainability
Ted Crovello, Cal State L.A.

A healthy, sustainable society is one that creates a quality of life for all, at a minimally acceptable level, without placing future generations into debt. Thus we need a sustainable environment, a sustainable economy, and a sustainable socio-political milieu, at all geographical levels of society: home, block, neighborhood, city, region, state, country, and world.

Sustainability requires a total society systems approach. To find solutions, we need to see the connections among the parts of society, to consider everything at once. One possible way of looking at the sectors is that used in the Los Angeles City Summit:

* Economic Development and Jobs

* Environment

* Public Health and Disaster Preparedness

* Inter-Ethnic and Inter-Communal Relations

* Poverty Alleviation and Shelter

* Governance and Public Participation

* Transportation and Communications

* Education and Youth

We probably need to add the Media as another sector.

Our task then is:

* Describe how the components of society interact in Southern California.

* Predict the results if no changes are made.

* Identify the principal causes of problems and design programs to alleviate them.

Sustainability Issues Facing Southern California

Some of the issues raised by participants in the initial table conversations included:

* Need for cross-sectoral communication, because people don't generally communicate well with people in other groups.

* Disintegrating families - people don't seem to have the support they need which leads to a sense of isolation, they don't recognize that the family is a lot bigger than a male, a female and some off-spring.

* Low quality education

* People's lack of concern about environment issues, they are more concerned about immediate economic worries

* Over-consumption - people need to simplify their lifestyle, redefine "the good life."

* Need for better access to and training for technology, such as the Internet.

* Sensory overload, which builds up stress.

* Lack of input into the political process (for example, how will the results of this conference get to the decision-makers?)

* Lack of trees and gardens in urban areas.

* Lack of connection to other people on topics that can make a real difference.

* Loss of nutrients in our food -- a health issue.

A Desired Future for Southern California

Group brainstorm ideas of the vision we would like to see for Southern California:

* Stable population - no growth.

* People learning to live sustainably.

* Decisions based on democratic decentralized consensus building processes.

* People's values emphasizing quality of life (spending time with our families, walking on the beach, etc.) rather than consumption.

* Quality schools.

* Media presenting values consistent with a sustainable life style.

* Quality jobs for all.

* People see the good that effective government can do and support it.

* Reduction of economic disparity, all workers paid a wage they can live on.

* Reduction of defense expenditures, in favor of the environment, transportation, etc.

* Increase in jobs related to sustainability, such as water recycling, planting trees, etc.

* People relate at the neighborhood level in a cooperative way to share resources and reduce waste generation.

* Change neighborhoods to a community model, such as an integrated urban village.

* Revitalization of downtown centers, included mixed use zoning.

* Community-based governments.

* Land freed up from less use of autos.

* Cost of driving shifted to the motorist.

* People educated about population issues.

* The media educate people on sustainability values.

* Reduced immigration.

* Smaller tax breaks for children.

* Schools that are caring and learning communities.

* Multi-ethnic, multi-income groups working together on real projects.

* An integrated education that harmonizes separate disciplines.

* Universal health care.

* Well-funded, sustainable transit system.

* Equity - have all people count.

Recommendations for Action

A compilation of group recommendations for actions to achieve our desired future:

1. Communicate the Crisis: Communicate the real facts of the situation, so people see it really is a crisis; overcome the wishful optimistic thinking that avoids the problem; capture people with the depth of the problem, such as we need increase efficiency/output in all areas by 50% just to keep up with population growth in our region.

2. Present The Options: Show people the opportunities to solve the problem; present the many ways to make a difference to overcome their pessimism; show how there are models in other cities and countries that we can learn from, e.g. Curitiba, Brazil, etc.; turn people on to a sustainable society, e.g. show how the 10 steps to avoid global warming is what we would want to do anyway for an economically-efficient, pollution-free society.

3. Do Research: Assess what people think, know and believe in the arena of sustainability.

4. Find Motivators: We must first appeal to people's basic needs for health, water, air, healthy children, shelter, food and education, jobs, etc.; assure that meeting people's basic needs is also our priority; stimulate concern for their children's future quality of life; since the media say the "environment thing" is over (the word "environment" supposedly no longer attracts peoples attention), we need to address it as a health issue.

5. Encourage Action: Encourage everyone who sees the problems and/or solutions to become active change agents, and lead society; distribute materials on the environment.

6. Include At Least the Following Topics in an Educational Program:

Consumption: Present the consumption issues, show there are other ways to live; if we don't reduce consumption, we would have to increase our efficiency by 50% to keep up with population growth.

Population: Encourage fewer children per family; explain what the population increase means in terms of quality of life for everyone; implement tax structures and government policies that do not reward having children; end the $500 tax deduction per child after the second child; end federal research money into fertility research.

New Economics: Change the idea that growth is the only way to economic prosperity; expand job opportunities; teach people how to do new jobs, such as composting; have full employment as a goal; advocate economic conversion